I disagree. First of all, California has two types of ballot initiatives: statutory and constitutional. Prop 22 (passed in 2000, by the way, when attitudes toward gay marriage in California were less positive) was statutory, meaning that it left the door open to being overturned by the democratic process, either through legislation or through another initiative. (The one that may be on the ballot this November is constitutional.) In short, it's not really parallel to the Massachusetts case.
As for out-of-state recognition, that question was already mostly litigated in other states after the 2004 case, and ended with just New Mexico, New York, and Rhode Island recognizing out-of-state marriages. Given the speed of the court system and DOMA, it probably won't be a big issue this November.
IIRC, in 2006 polls showed large margins against same-sex marriage in all the states where they initiatives passed, including Oregon. (According to polling by The Oregonian/KATU, the margin was a commanding 51-40% in September.) So there's no real evidence that these polls have been incorrect historically. The question with the ballot initiative is whether Obama will draw out more African-American voters or young voters (who support same-sex marriage by a pretty big margin.)
As for hopes that this could turn California red, don't believe a word of it. I just got back to the Bay Area from university, and Obama is more popular than Jesus here. (And I mean that in the most literal sense possible.) The man has a cult of personality. It's scary.
no subject
As for out-of-state recognition, that question was already mostly litigated in other states after the 2004 case, and ended with just New Mexico, New York, and Rhode Island recognizing out-of-state marriages. Given the speed of the court system and DOMA, it probably won't be a big issue this November.
IIRC, in 2006 polls showed large margins against same-sex marriage in all the states where they initiatives passed, including Oregon. (According to polling by The Oregonian/KATU, the margin was a commanding 51-40% in September.) So there's no real evidence that these polls have been incorrect historically. The question with the ballot initiative is whether Obama will draw out more African-American voters or young voters (who support same-sex marriage by a pretty big margin.)
As for hopes that this could turn California red, don't believe a word of it. I just got back to the Bay Area from university, and Obama is more popular than Jesus here. (And I mean that in the most literal sense possible.) The man has a cult of personality. It's scary.