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fpb ([personal profile] fpb) wrote2008-05-16 05:34 am
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The California Supreme Court have just made a gift of the Presidency to John McCain

And quite possibly saved the Republican Party from defeat. As the nationwide results of their usurpation of legislative power become clear (for gay activists intend to use the details of California law to start a series of cases across the nation - a crazed strategy, but they cannot admit to themselves just how unpopular their case is) the anger of the values voters at Republican corruption and contempt for them will be overwhelmed by their concern at this development. If millions of values voters were quite likely convinced to vote Shrub four years ago by the example of Massachussets (which had no nationwide significance, because Mass. law did not allow outsiders to marry against their home state laws) and of Canada, what will happen if the whole presidential campaign is dotted by assaults on state law across the country? These people ought to have waited until Obama was elected and a Democratic majority safely returned to Congress. If this decision had been passed one year hence, they would probably have Obama in the White House to turn his handsome smile on it, and a filibuster-crushing majority in both Houses. Instead, they have given any Republican who wants to seize it (I cannot speak for the Specters of this world) an opportunity to fight like a junkyard dog. They just never seem to have any sense.

[identity profile] goreism.livejournal.com 2008-05-16 06:44 am (UTC)(link)
I think this case won't be nearly as useful as Goodridge was in channeling backlash in 2004. For one thing, the legislature passed a bill allowing same-sex marriage twice, and it was vetoed by Schwarzenegger specifically on the ground that they should wait until the Supreme Court had ruled—upon which the legislation would either be redundant or impossible. (And Arnold says he won't support the proposition on the ballot this fall.) Moreover, all but one of the Supreme Court justices are Republican appointees, and California judges, unlike judges in Massachusetts, are elected.

The out-of-state impact is also likely to be muted, since it seems that the only state in which there might be a ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage is California itself, again in stark contrast to 2004. (The latest show that Californians are evenly split over it.) And neither Obama (who opposes same-sex marriage) nor McCain (who opposed FMA) are really poised to exploit the issue. Hence the McCain campaign's essentially no-comment comment on the decision.