I promised to one of my friends...

[fpb]

...reference for the statement that birth rates in Iran and Algeria are falling towards negative level. Only I can't remember who it was. Well, here is a report: http://www.prcdc.org/files/Fertility_Decline_Muslim.pdf

Comments

[filialucis]

*raises hand*

Thank you!

*downloads PDF and settles down to read*

Umm.....

[fishlivejournal.livejournal.com]

Some of those figures cannot possibly be right. Consider:
"Between 1989 and 1996 the TFR dropped from slightly below six to well under three births per woman"

once people are born, they stay born. With an average life expectancy of 89, less than 10% of the mothers from the 1989 figures will have died by 1996; the remaining 92% are still in the figures. Even if none of the newly matured women have had any children, this would require the women who have died to have averaged over 30 children each!