The coming British elections

[fpb]

If I were a betting man, I would not mind betting a few pounds on the following results:
- The Tories will get a majority of MPs, but less than they hoped for
- because there will be an explosion of non-aligned right-wing votes. The BNP, UKIP and the English Democrats all will poll several hundred thousand votes each and may achieve a fistful of seats.
- This will be the bell that saves Labour from annihilation, since in a lot of seats the Tories and the right-wing parties will fight each other to a standstill; but
-Labour will lose votes to the LibDems, and possibly to the Greens, as many "progressive" voters will decide to go to the strongest merchant; and, in Scotland, to the Scottish Socialists.

The result may be the most ungovernable House of Commons since the seventies.

Comments

[kennahijja.livejournal.com]

I bet you money that you're wrong about the Scottish Socialists... more's the pity, of course, but I don't think they'll benefit much - I haven't seen signs of recovery after that bang of self-destruction they exploded in a few years back :(. SNP and Greens is my guess. Overall, I see the number of non-voters mushroom most of all.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

Money? How much? My reasoning is this: both main parties are discredited. The Tories are not conservative in any sense except of their own money, and Labour is as close to the average worker as their employer. And it does not help that they both have apparently become convinced that the public want nothing more from politics than money in their pockets, and that all you have to do to get elected is to manage the economy better than the other guy. Whatever that man may have said twenty years ago, it ain't just the economy, stupid; it's about the kind of society we want to live in. Many people are ready for alternatives which approach close to their own beliefs. This will do the Tories a lot of damage, since David Cameron is neither willing to be a genuine conservative nor credible as one; but any amount of Labour voters are looking for people who believe in social democracy and haven't completely sold out. And you can see this happening with UKIP - a party whose internal squabbles and rotten candidate selection (one of their three MEPs had to be thrown out) would, ordinarily, have been suicidal. In spite of that, they have steadily grown at the expense of the Tories, simply because they seem and sound more conservative - and not just about Europe - than the Conservatives. In Scotland, the Scottish Socialists have a similar position of being more socialist than Labour. At this time in history, that counts more than internal efficiency. People actually do not trust well-run well-organized parties; the lockstep efficiency of the Labour and Tory conference will not have gained them a single vote each - people are put off by party hackery. So, however suicidal the internal wrangling of the SSs may be, the party still stands a chance simply because it is not Labour.

[kennahijja.livejournal.com]

Ten quid or a book of choice thereabouts that the SSP don't make 5% in Scotland?

I mean I wish you were right, I just don't think they'll benefit much - fragmentation on the left always spells disaster.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

Fragmentation on the right won't do the right much good either. The lesser parties (to which I would add the fledgling Christian Party) will be lucky if they get a dozen MPs between them - heck, they'd be lucky if they got any - but they may lose the Tories dozens of seats. The mechanism is set up to favour the big parties, however unpopular.

Bet taken. Ten quid it is. But I have a terrible memory, so I hope I remember when the day comes.

[kennahijja.livejournal.com]

Yeah, but fragmentation on the right makes me happy.

I'll remind you :).

And I don't think I've thanked you for the song you sent me - makes me cry ever time I play it. Sad but great. Thank you!

[fpb.livejournal.com]

Take what comfort you can, then - the next few decades belong to us. However, I am glad you liked "1917". It is by David Olney, the most classic case of a neglected genius I ever came across. Seek out his work, you won't be sorry.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

Oh, yes, and of course you are right about non-voters. This country is heading towards American levels of voter apathy.