Date: 2011-09-09 08:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fpb.livejournal.com
I will add this: that even in circumstances where logic and reason cannot be used as an instrument to find out truth, it can be good to use them merely as a kind of intellectual game, to see how much a certain argument can be developed. Our Alternate Universe fics, for instance, are of this kind, and the best of them hinge on the change of a single feature between the "reality" of canon and the story.

Sometimes, the imaginative use of reason and knowledge in unreal settings can actually prelude to reality. In 1930, a journalist wrote a novel that was later seen to have predicted the whole course of the Japanese-American part of WWII in considerable detail. This man had simply asked himself: given what I know of Japan and of the US, what would happen if...? Conversely, in 1859 a novel was published in South Carolina that predicted, one year ahead of time - and at a time when Lincoln had not yet been heard of - the secession of the South and the war between the states. However, it was grossly and self-aggrandizingly wrong in its predictions of the final outcome: it described a North destroyed in battle and torn apart by further sedition - the very opposite of what happened. That means obviously that the author understood his own people - the South - but was ignorant of what he could expect from the North, and therefore his rational projection of expectations failed him altogether. And to show that it was possible, even then, to get it right, there is Sam Houston's devastating prophecy: "Let me tell you what is coming. After the sacrifice of countless millions of treasure and hundreds of thousands of lives, you may win Southern independence if God be not against you, but I doubt it. I tell you that, while I believe with you in the doctrine of states rights, the North is determined to preserve this Union. They are not a fiery, impulsive people as you are, for they live in colder climates. But when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverance of a mighty avalanche; and what I fear is, they will overwhelm the South."

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