For discussion

[fpb]

I think that the future of the whole world depends on two monstrous gambles, in which most of us are concerned. One is to do with Islam: the effort to tame the rebellious and Titanic spirit of this religion by continued acquaintance and collaboration with a world that now includes not only the West but also the Far East and India. The other is the Chinese leadership's gamble that they can keep the colossal Chinese rate of economic growth going for another generation, absorbing the immense mass of unemployed in new businesses (the unemployed in China are estimated to be anything up to fifty or a hundred million) and stabilize the Chinese state on the income from taxation. If that fails, China might collapse into another of its civil wars, which are historically her reaction to change; but a civil war in a country of 1.4billion and with the atom bomb simply does not bear thinking about.

(That is why I was alarmed by bufo_viridis' offhand reference to the likelihood of China invading and taking over Taiwan by force. This would be a disastrous step; even supposing for a second that the US and Japan would not become involved in such a war, Taiwan is a virtually independent country that is one of the world's top ten economies. Its investments abroad, and foreign investments in it, are enormous. Its sudden destruction in a surely bloody and expensive war - Taiwan is armed to the teeth, as far as its small size allows it to be - would be a worldwide economic disaster; and China itself would suffer as much as anyone. The after-effects might be just as bad, if China's export markets suddenly start feeling mistrust towards it. Altogether, I can imagine no foreign-policy development more likely to stop the great Chinese growth in its tracks and endanger the great Chinese gamble.)

Comments

[bufo-viridis.livejournal.com]

All what you said above is true. But the fact of not recognizing the indepedence does not mean the country is not independent. Taiwan - or Republic of China in its present form - fulfills all the legal demands for a state. The current status of Taiwan is, to put it simply, a legal fiction, upheld by all interested parties for the sake of peace, or rather, lack of violence :)
Among Taiwanese the matter of identity is fast changing and also much fluctuating; the very rough estimate would be to say that one third is for indepedence, one for unification and one has no clear opinion. If you want me to go into details, I can post fragments of the article I co-authored on the subject of the legal status of Taiwan (can't post whole one, hasn't yet been published).

[fpb.livejournal.com]

I think you underrate the importance of international law. After all, independence is a legal concept.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

And I would add that while no doubt public opinion in Taiwan is divided, the political situation itself must be a factor. I would imagine that for every person who takes pride in the achievements of - shall we say - independent Taiwan, there must be another whose fundamental lack of interest in independence as such is encouraged by the sense of Chinese pressure.

[bufo-viridis.livejournal.com]

I think you underrate the importance of international law. After all, independence is a legal concept.
I might have worded it inapropriately, but by no means I underrate the int'l law: above I quoted its very definitions asserting Taiwan's factual independence.

And I would add that while no doubt public opinion in Taiwan is divided, the political situation itself must be a factor.

Current developments contribute especially to the large (e.g. 10%) fluctuations in "Taiwanese/Chinese identity" as measured in the polls within months, which is scale not found in the more "stabilized" societies (stabilized w/regard to the sense of identity, not economically or politically. In the latter regards Taiwanese are v. stable). More finely constructed questionnaires reveal quite a brad spectrum of opinions, from hard-core unioninst, through "possibly in the future, if China changes enough", "maybe yes, maybe not", "indepedence only if there is no war because of it" to hardcore independists. There are even more attitudes listed and present.

The last presidential elections almost-a-draw was by large caused by the fear of Chinese attack in case of Chen Shubian's reelection and him taking more active steps towards so-called. "indepedence".