For discussion

[fpb]

I think that the future of the whole world depends on two monstrous gambles, in which most of us are concerned. One is to do with Islam: the effort to tame the rebellious and Titanic spirit of this religion by continued acquaintance and collaboration with a world that now includes not only the West but also the Far East and India. The other is the Chinese leadership's gamble that they can keep the colossal Chinese rate of economic growth going for another generation, absorbing the immense mass of unemployed in new businesses (the unemployed in China are estimated to be anything up to fifty or a hundred million) and stabilize the Chinese state on the income from taxation. If that fails, China might collapse into another of its civil wars, which are historically her reaction to change; but a civil war in a country of 1.4billion and with the atom bomb simply does not bear thinking about.

(That is why I was alarmed by bufo_viridis' offhand reference to the likelihood of China invading and taking over Taiwan by force. This would be a disastrous step; even supposing for a second that the US and Japan would not become involved in such a war, Taiwan is a virtually independent country that is one of the world's top ten economies. Its investments abroad, and foreign investments in it, are enormous. Its sudden destruction in a surely bloody and expensive war - Taiwan is armed to the teeth, as far as its small size allows it to be - would be a worldwide economic disaster; and China itself would suffer as much as anyone. The after-effects might be just as bad, if China's export markets suddenly start feeling mistrust towards it. Altogether, I can imagine no foreign-policy development more likely to stop the great Chinese growth in its tracks and endanger the great Chinese gamble.)

Comments

[bufo-viridis.livejournal.com]

Right, to make matters clear, I do not think the invasion is imminent. In fact there are several other military scenarios, less violent, but ending in the same result, namely subjugation of the island.
My offhandendness was mainly caused by my belief that in the case of invasion, Taiwanese won't get much more than kind words from the rest of the world.

The most interesting thing is that the countries which can do most to protect Taiwan and who whould be the most interested in "rewarding" the outstanding achievement of Taiwanese mocratization, i.e. USA and Western Europe will also be the one hit worst by the conflict's after-effects, because they're dependent on the electronic products of Taiwan.

There are also non-military scenarios of subjugation of Taiwan - mainly by freezing its enormous (100 bilions or so USD) investmentment on the Continent. Curious thing is, it's hard to gues how would the Chinese economy react to such freezing.

I won't develop further, becuase the starting point is too general - but I'd love to participate in the discussion which will hopefully follow.

To points think needs to be corrected:
China might collapse into another of its civil wars, which are historically her reaction to change
I think this is a bit too far-fetched - most often collapse and civil wars happened when the ruling part exhausted its ability to change and ossified too much; or at least I think so.

Taiwan is a virtually independent country
It's not virtually independent - it's a regular, independent state, albeit with very limited official international relations, but with a full capacity to maintain them.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

Neither the PRC nor Taiwan actually recognize the latter's independence, and so far no election in Taiwan has yet returned a clear majority for independence. One young woman from there once told me that her mother used to tell her: "remember, we are not Taiwanese, we are Chinese". So I would say that even within Taiwan itself, there must still be some considerable residual pressure towards not recognizing the separation of the two countries, quite apart from China's great success in avoiding to have the matter of Taiwan considered in any other light by the international community. Independence only exists if it is recognized both inside and outside, and thus far neither Taiwan itself nor any other official body has recognized it. That is why I say "virtual".

[bufo-viridis.livejournal.com]

All what you said above is true. But the fact of not recognizing the indepedence does not mean the country is not independent. Taiwan - or Republic of China in its present form - fulfills all the legal demands for a state. The current status of Taiwan is, to put it simply, a legal fiction, upheld by all interested parties for the sake of peace, or rather, lack of violence :)
Among Taiwanese the matter of identity is fast changing and also much fluctuating; the very rough estimate would be to say that one third is for indepedence, one for unification and one has no clear opinion. If you want me to go into details, I can post fragments of the article I co-authored on the subject of the legal status of Taiwan (can't post whole one, hasn't yet been published).

[fpb.livejournal.com]

I think you underrate the importance of international law. After all, independence is a legal concept.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

And I would add that while no doubt public opinion in Taiwan is divided, the political situation itself must be a factor. I would imagine that for every person who takes pride in the achievements of - shall we say - independent Taiwan, there must be another whose fundamental lack of interest in independence as such is encouraged by the sense of Chinese pressure.

[bufo-viridis.livejournal.com]

I think you underrate the importance of international law. After all, independence is a legal concept.
I might have worded it inapropriately, but by no means I underrate the int'l law: above I quoted its very definitions asserting Taiwan's factual independence.

And I would add that while no doubt public opinion in Taiwan is divided, the political situation itself must be a factor.

Current developments contribute especially to the large (e.g. 10%) fluctuations in "Taiwanese/Chinese identity" as measured in the polls within months, which is scale not found in the more "stabilized" societies (stabilized w/regard to the sense of identity, not economically or politically. In the latter regards Taiwanese are v. stable). More finely constructed questionnaires reveal quite a brad spectrum of opinions, from hard-core unioninst, through "possibly in the future, if China changes enough", "maybe yes, maybe not", "indepedence only if there is no war because of it" to hardcore independists. There are even more attitudes listed and present.

The last presidential elections almost-a-draw was by large caused by the fear of Chinese attack in case of Chen Shubian's reelection and him taking more active steps towards so-called. "indepedence".

[goreism.livejournal.com]

That might have something to do with whether the woman in question is a waishengren (外省人) or benshengren (Literally, "extraprovincial" and uh... "intraprovincial"? But they refer to the largely Mandarin-speaking population that came with Chiang Kai-shek after the Civil War, and the largely Minnan speaking population that's been around since the Ming dynasty). Waishengren, as might be expected, are generally more in favor of KMT and pan-blue and reunification in general, whereas benshengren are usually more open to the DPP, pan-green, and Taiwanese localization (and perhaps independence, though supporters of "Taidu" still remain a minority). As with any other place of similar size, the Taiwanese population isn't monolithic.

Incidentally, whatever The Epoch Times says, I think the possibility of a cross-strait military conflict anytime in the forseeable future is really low. It would be, as you point out, disastrous for almost everybody involved.

Also, you noted that neither side recognizes the other's independence. While this is true de jure, since Lee Teng-hui's time, Taiwan (the ROC, if you like) has informally acknowledged the mainland's independence, and made overtures toward Mongolia (which it still recognizes de jure as part of the ROC). Actually changing the claimed borders of the ROC (which includes both Outer Mongolia and Tibet) is constitutionally problematic.

I tend to distrust polls on the issue; they devolve too much on definitions of exactly what "Taiwanese independence" means. Would representation of Taiwan in the WTO be independence? What about scrapping the old ROC constitution? All of these are controversial moves, which are seen by some as tantamount to a declaration of independence, and some as just... not.

If you're wondering where I come down on the issue (as someone who can conveniently register for dual ROC citizenship as a closer than a sixth-generation descendant of a Chinese person, due to the Republic's rather racist citizenship laws), I, just like—as far as I know from watching the news—most Taiwanese citizens, just favor the status quo. With a few exceptions, Taiwan manages to conduct the necessary day-to-day affairs of a country through Taipei Economic and Cultural Offices or whatever.

(Not that I'm planning on registering for citizenship anytime soon. The only benefit I can see is using my "minguo" birth year on the ID card to make myself look older, and the downside is putting myself at risk for military service if I spend too much time in Taiwan.)

military service

[fpb.livejournal.com]

This reminds me of my own time in the Italian Army. Actually, it is not without value. And there is something about being in the Army that makes you chatty about your experiences there for the rest of your life.

Taiwan

[fpb.livejournal.com]

From my point of view, and from that of most linguists and anthropologists, the ruin of the aboriginal populations and languages of Taiwan is the worst result of the Chinese invasion, especially after 1945. Those tiny and neglected ethnic groups are generally reputed to be the most archaic in the immense Austronesian language group, that spread across the face of the globe from Madagascar to Easter Island; and there seems to be a consensus among many linguists that the ancestors of the Austronesians actually set out from Taiwan, which would make this island one of the most important spots in human history. Apart from anything else, the spread of these languages indicates some early technological breakthrough that made the aboriginal Taiwanese able to master the oceans, which nobody else until the Vikings managed. I understand that the neglect and persecution of aboriginal languages are now being to some extent reversed, but it may be too late, and that would be very sad.

[patchworkmind.livejournal.com]

I have thought such many times myself, but I've just kept quiet it on it. I see no reason to ponder what might happen with China, because as with much of the affairs that have to do with them... They do what they want when they want because they do nothing without a great deal of planning and preparation. They also tend to corner the planetary market not only on economy -- but on patience.