The end of the road

[fpb]

Well, England has pulled the rope once too often and it broke. A few days ago I called the English hatred of Europe a mental illness; now we see it in full swing. The sulphurous pleasure that seems to dominate even GUARDIAN Comment-Is-Free columns seems to me wholly impossible to understand. These people imagine that a country of sixty million people can "renegotiate", to its own advantage its membership of a club of 28 countries and 400,000,000 people. One does not have to have a deep knowledge of the fact to call this an insane, out-of-touch-with-reality, diseased ideation.

Even worse, the final blow of the English knife could not have come at a worse time. Every European leader will feel that Cameron tried to blackmail them as they were struggling for the life of the European project. No wonder nobody wanted to speak with him this morning. Nigel Farage drew attention to President Sarkozy's fury, but I would be more worried about what must be an equally intense rage from Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel. It's not just that she is, by everyone's acknowledgement, the most powerful person in Europe (give or take her fellow-countryman in the Vatican); it is that, as Silvio Berlusconi found out, fat, easily-mocked little Angela, with her frumpy one-size-too-small pants suits (and by the height of misfortune Hilary Clinton around to show how they should be worn) and her inability to speak any language but her own, is someone who makes you pay. Sarkozy may be here today and gone tomorrow, blown about by his mercurial energy, but Angela Merkel can and will remember. If she could end the apparently bomb-proof career of Europe's biggest scoundrel, she can certainly make any British politician regret the day they were born.

What do these people expect? The first demand to renegotiate British membership will be met by a series of actively damaging regulations that will cut European capital off from the City. Do they seriously think otherwise? You cannot negotiate to your advantage unless you are holding a really big stick, and England has none. English business, English exports, the English public and private accounts, none of them are anything worth writing home about. The only thing that stands out is the City, and exclusion from Europe will certainly damage that. Even granting that it can keep the confidence of the Russian, Arab and other third world billionaires who still flock to London with their more or less lawfully acquired wealth, to be left to trust on that sort of people would make the City an even dodgier-looking place than it is today. They speak of Switzerland; but Switzerland, apart from the ancient treaties that guarantee her neutrality, never left the impression of despising Europe and everything in it, and never used a moment of crisis to stab the Union in the back.

England's relationship with Europe is pathological

Comments

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There will be no break-up. At worst, temporary agreement will follow temporary agreement until the markets are tired of scaring themselves stupid and decide to find something else to get excited about. At best, we will finally have a sensible nucleus of pan-European governance, preferably elected. Nobody is even considering a break-up. Would YOU want to be in a condition where you have to have a passport and visa to go to Paris or to the Alps, and where business had to contend with dozens of borders and of exchange rates? That is a rhetorical question, of course.

"I.. don't think for aminute that this was the outcome Cameron had in mind." Exactly. He thought he could play obstruction and get brownie points from his lunatic party members without running any serious risk. Which makes him an incompetent in his own field, because any politician ought to have realized that a crisis summit called under severe pressure was the last place to show oneself obstructive and disloyal. And never mind whether the idiots in the Daily Jail were insisting that "this is the right moment to force a repatriation of powers". Repeating rubbish does not make it any more true than it was the first time. Marina Hyde explained it all in her blog in words that a child could understand, and she was vilified for her pains.

The absurd myths built around Margaret Thatcher are part of the mental illness. They miss the two most important things about Thatcher. First, she signed the Maastricht Treaty. That was because she realized she could not stop it, and that at the end of the day it was more in Britain's interest to be in than out. Second, when she tried using the veto against the Euro, that was the end of her: the Europeans simply went ahead without her, and she came home from Rome with her aura of success broken. Within a month, she was gone. Now this is exactly what happened here to Cameron - and, never forget, Clegg. It may well be the that it is LibDem discontent that brings the government down, because Nick Clegg really has surrendered far too much and lied far too much simply for the pleasure of being a minister.

[helixaspersa.livejournal.com]

I meant a break-up of the currency, not the union. I think at least one country leaving the euro is pretty likely, and a complete collapse not impossible.

[fpb.livejournal.com]

The fact is that the countries most under attack are the ones who will do the most to prevent it. Greece would have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of the Euro; polls say that 70% of the Greek electorate is in favour of the Euro. Italy going out is unimaginable - that would indeed mean the break-up of the currency, and Germany and France will not allow it as long as they are themselves committed to the Euro. Which they are. This whole thing has been blown way out of all proportion. When, two years ago, people in America started to talk about the break-up of the Euro, I ridiculed the idea, and I haven't changed my mind.

[helixaspersa.livejournal.com]

Well we'll see! I hope you're right. In any case I don't think this week's agreement has done anything significant to improve the situation.